Join us on a literary world trip!
Add this book to bookshelf
Grey
Write a new comment Default profile 50px
Grey
Subscribe to read the full book or read the first pages for free!
All characters reduced
Failed Predictions - cover

Failed Predictions

Gideon Fairchild

Translator A AI

Publisher: Publifye

  • 0
  • 0
  • 0

Summary

"Failed Predictions" explores why forecasts so often miss the mark by examining historical miscalculations across technology and economics. The book highlights how cognitive biases and flawed methodologies lead to forecasting failures, even among experts. It reveals that even sophisticated predictive models falter due to unforeseen events and incomplete data, compounded by recurring human errors like overconfidence and groupthink. Understanding these errors is vital for better decision-making.

 
The book traces the evolution of forecasting from ancient times to modern econometrics, revealing consistent challenges. Case studies from technology, economics, and geopolitics illustrate how predictions fail, such as underestimating technological disruptions or misjudging economic trends. By dissecting these failures, the book provides practical guidance for improving forecasting practices and developing more adaptable strategies for navigating future uncertainties.

 
The book is structured into three parts: introducing core concepts and biases, presenting case studies, and synthesizing lessons learned. By focusing on common threads in forecasting errors, "Failed Predictions" offers a unique perspective valuable to general readers, professionals in finance and technology, and policymakers seeking to make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Available since: 03/29/2025.
Print length: 78 pages.

Other books that might interest you

  • Retirement Your Way: The No Stress Roadmap for Designing Your Next Chapter and Loving Your Future - cover

    Retirement Your Way: The No...

    Gail M. Mcdonald, Marilyn L. Bushey

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    Are you ready to break the retirement mold and do retirement your way?  
    Whether you want to keep working beyond the traditional retirement years, start a business, spend time with grandchildren, travel, play your favorite sport, or go back to school, this book offers a clear 7-step roadmap to help you get there and enjoy the journey. 
    Design your dream Next Chapter, using all this book has to offer:6 lifestyle categories to stimulate your own ideas7 essential steps to discover and forge the right path for youOver 50 inspiring personal storiesConversation starters to spark candid discussionsEvidence-based practices to increase your longevity, vitality and more! 
    Packed with practical guidance, useful research, and inspiring stories, Retirement Your Way will motivate you to: 
    Let go of your stories, Add your dreams, and Keep exploring!
    Show book
  • The Power to Destroy - How the Antitax Movement Hijacked America - cover

    The Power to Destroy - How the...

    Michael J. Graetz

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    The postwar United States enjoyed large, widely distributed economic rewards—and most Americans accepted that taxes were a reasonable price to pay for living in a society of shared prosperity. Then in 1978 California enacted Proposition 13, a property tax cap that Ronald Reagan hailed as a "second American Revolution," setting off an antitax, antigovernment wave that has transformed American politics and economic policy. In The Power to Destroy, Michael Graetz tells the story of the antitax movement and how it holds America hostage—undermining the nation's ability to meet basic needs and fix critical problems. 
     
     
     
    In 1819, Chief Justice John Marshall declared that the power to tax entails "the power to destroy." But The Power to Destroy argues that tax opponents now wield this destructive power. Attacking the IRS, protecting tax loopholes, and pushing tax cuts from Reagan to Donald Trump, the antitax movement is threatening the nation's social safety net, increasing inequality, ballooning the national debt, and sapping America's financial strength. The book chronicles how the movement originated as a fringe enterprise promoted by zealous outsiders using false economic claims and thinly veiled racist rhetoric, and how—abetted by conservative media and Grover Norquist's "taxpayer protection pledge"—it evolved into a mainstream political force.
    Show book
  • Seven Years Not Forty - How the Fast-Wealthy Move - cover

    Seven Years Not Forty - How the...

    Ellis Marwood

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    Most people inherit a financial script they never chose: go to school, get a job, save steadily, and retire at sixty-five. Ellis Marwood argues that this script is not a timeless truth but a historically specific relic — one that was better suited to an era of pensions, shorter lifespans, and limited alternatives. Today, it no longer serves the majority of people well enough to be accepted without question.
    Seven Years, Not Forty is a rigorous, practical guide to building genuine financial freedom on a compressed timeline. Drawing on seventeen years of reporting on the people and companies that fall outside the usual norm, Marwood distills the mechanics behind accelerated wealth creation into a coherent and honest framework — one grounded in ownership, leverage, systems, and solving problems at scale.
    The book begins by dismantling three common financial misconceptions: that high income equals wealth, that saving and investing are sufficient paths to freedom, and that retirement at sixty-five is the natural endpoint of a working life. Using research from Federal Reserve data, Thomas Piketty's capital theory, the Harvard Study of Adult Development, and behavioral economics, Marwood shows why the standard path often fails to deliver what it promises — and what the alternative looks like in practice.
    At the core of the book is a simple but powerful distinction between three financial roads: labor, saving and investing, and ownership. Most people spend their entire careers on the first two. The fastest wealth builders move deliberately toward the third — acquiring businesses, real estate, intellectual property, and equity that produce income independent of their personal labor.
    Marwood then provides the tools to make that move. Readers learn how to escape the salary trap without reckless quitting, how to shift from a consumer to a producer mindset, how to build businesses that run without the owner in the room, and how to deploy the five levers — labor, capital, code, media, and equity — to multiply output far beyond what personal effort alone can achieve. The book also addresses the psychological and structural threats to wealth preservation, and makes a compelling case that true richness must be lived during the building years, not deferred to an uncertain future.
    Through case studies of Sara Blakely, Jan Koum, and Madame C.J. Walker, Marwood shows that compressed wealth creation is not reserved for tech prodigies or the already-privileged. It follows a recognizable pattern: identify a widespread problem, test cheaply, retain ownership, build transferable systems, and use leverage to scale beyond personal labor.
    Seven Years, Not Forty does not promise shortcuts or secret formulas. It offers something more valuable: a clear map, drawn from thousands of real stories, of how ordinary people have built extraordinary financial freedom — and what any reader willing to question the inherited script can begin doing today.
    Show book
  • Money Is God in Action - cover

    Money Is God in Action

    Raymond Charles Barker

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    Money Is God in Action created a minor sensation when it was announced in the Religious Notices page of the New York Times. Equating God with money was unheard of in New York, from St. Patrick's Cathedral down to Wall Street's Trinity Church. New York was never the same after that. Neither was RCB's attendance on Sunday, requiring ever larger meeting places.The shortest, most used, and many think the best on its subject.
    Show book
  • Divestitures - CREATING VALUE THROUGH STRATEGY STRUCTURE AND IMPLEMENTATION - cover

    Divestitures - CREATING VALUE...

    Emilie R. Feldman

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    You've focused on mergers and acquisitions, but how much do you know about divestitures? Wharton professor Emilie R. Feldman provides a comprehensive primer on what strategic objectives divestitures can achieve, which businesses divestitures typically involve, what divestiture structures companies can choose from, and how to implement divestitures to maximize their financial benefits. 
     
     
     
    Divestitures are among the hottest transactional structures today. Divestitures: Creating Value Through Strategy, Structure, and Implementation shows executives, board members, transactional advisors, educators, and others how strategic divestitures can be used to enhance corporate value and performance. The book is organized into three sections: Strategy: Remove problems, improve focus, reconfigure the corporate portfolio, and address regulatory requirements; Structure: Sales, spinoffs, equity carveouts, Reverse Morris Trusts, joint ventures, and tracking stocks; and Implementation: Separate the divested business, reconfigure internal processes, and reshape external perceptions. 
     
     
     
    This essential book fills major gaps in the professional and academic markets, providing the only available rigorous, research-based treatment of this important strategic tool.
    Show book
  • Angel Investing Revised & Updated - The Gust Guide to Making Money and Having Fun Investing in Startups - cover

    Angel Investing Revised &...

    David S. Rose, Reid Hoffman

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0
    Angel Investing is a comprehensive, entertaining guide that walks listeners through every step of the way to becoming a successful angel investor. From building your reputation as a smart investor, to negotiating fair deals, to adding value to your portfolio companies and helping them implement smart exit strategies, this book provides both the fundamental strategies and the specific tools you need to take full advantage of this rapidly growing asset class. 
     
    Written by David S. Rose, the founder of Gust, the global platform that powers the world of organized professional angel investing, this book delivers insights on:Why everyone with six figures to invest should consider angel investing, plus the non-financial rewards of angel investingHow to source and identify high-potential opportunities, and build your angelic reputation so that the best deals come to youThe impact of AI and advancing technology on angel investing and why you absolutely must completely understand the concept of exponential growthThe impact of crowdfunding, syndicates, and the global technology revolution on angel investing
    Show book