The Keys to Downing Street - a guide to forecasting the political future

Tom Fischer

Sinossi

‘The Keys to Downing Street’ is an utterly unique guide to British General Elections, offering a refreshingly penetrating insight into how our democracy works. 
 
The book is both a history book, graphically bringing to life the political history of the United Kingdom since 1945, and a guide to forecasting our political future. It is an adaptation of Professor Alan Lichtman’s brilliant American Presidential forecasting method to the UK political system. Lichtman’s ‘Keys’ have correctly forecast every US Presidential election since 1984, and now, with his kind permission, the wisdom of his methodology is now shedding light on the political process this side of the pond. 
 
Although the unexpected return of Nigel Farage to the forefront of British politics during the 2024 campaign, came too late to be incorporated into the forecast for the 2024 election, the author did publicise an updated forecast in the days before the poll. He predicted a Labour majority of 170 – they actually got one of 174!

Disponibile da: 06/07/2024.

Politica

Altri libri che potrebbero interessarti

Constitution of Liberty The:...

Briefly Summaries

This is a concise summary and analysis of The Constitution of Liberty, by Friedrich A. Hayek.
It is not the original book and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Friedrich A. Hayek.
Ideal those seeking a quick and insightful overview.
 
The Constitution of Liberty is a timeless exploration of the principles of freedom, justice, and the rule of law in modern societies. This influential work provides a compelling argument for the preservation of individual liberty as the foundation of prosperity and social order. The book examines the relationship between government and the individual, emphasizing the importance of limited government and spontaneous order in fostering innovation and progress. Thought-provoking and meticulously reasoned, this work challenges readers to reflect on the philosophical and practical underpinnings of a free society.

Mostra libro

Ukraine Between War and Peace

Jacques Baud

Has the US strategy in Ukraine reached an impasse? What is the Russian conduct of military operations? When will the Ukrainian counter-offensive take place? Does Western weaponry really make a difference in Ukraine? Who are the winners of this war? What changes in the world are we witnessing since February 24, 2022? What is the reality of the losses on the Ukrainian and Russian sides? Can Western industry compete with Russian industry in Ukraine? Why is a negotiated solution not being sought? How is our perception of the conﬂit serving Ukraine?

To answer these questions and many others, Jacques Baud relies on information from Western intelligence services and American documents that were leaked in April 2023. After the best-sellers Putin, Game Master? and Operation Z, both works praised world-wide, Baud returns to the war in Ukraine by analyzing the facts and nothing but the facts. Whether one is for or against the position of Ukraine, one must nevertheless deal with the field of operations and to analyze what is happening there. This is the only way to find a path to peace—because peace will not come by relying on illusions.

Mostra libro

The Shortest History of War -...

Gwynne Dyer

War has always been a defining feature of human society. This new addition to the Shortest History series explains why we do it—and how we can stop. 
 
 
 
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has punctured the longest stretch of peace between major powers since WWII, bringing the horrors of warfare—past, present, and future—to the forefront of listeners' minds. In The Shortest History of War, internationally acclaimed historian Gwynne Dyer adds urgently needed context. 
 
 
 
Dyer ably charts the evolution of violent conflict: tribal aggression, classical combat, limited war, total war, and cold war—followed by present-day terrorism, nuclear threats, and the development of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). His brilliant, brisk history is a harrowing must-listen for all who wonder: How will rival superpowers with unprecedented weapons shape the future of our interconnected world?

Mostra libro

The New World Order

H. G. Wells

The New World Order is a non-fiction book written by H.G. Wells and was published by Secker & Warburg in January 1940. In The New World Order, Wells proposed a framework of international functionalism that could guide the world towards achieving world peace. To achieve these ends, Wells asserted that a socialist and scientifically planned world government would need to be formed to defend human rights.Wells's motivation for writing The New World Order was based upon the outbreak of World War II. Wells was concerned that the Allies had no clear statement of aims for fighting in the war and that this would lead to the continuation of the pre-existing balance of power. In The New World Order, Wells writes that without a revolution in international affairs and the establishment of human rights, then further destructive wars were inevitable.

Mostra libro

The Yemen Model - Why US Policy...

Alexandra Stark

A close look at failed US policies in the Middle East, offering a fresh perspective on how best to reorient goals in the region 
 
 
  
In this book Alexandra Stark argues that the US approach to Yemen offers insights into the failures of American foreign policy throughout the Middle East. Stark makes the case that despite often being drawn into conflicts within Yemen, the United States has not achieved its policy goals because it has narrowly focused on counterterrorism and regional geopolitical competition rather than on the well-being of Yemenis themselves. She offers recommendations designed to reorient US policy in the Middle East in pursuit of US national security interests and to support the people of these countries in their efforts to make their own communities safe, secure, and prosperous.

Mostra libro

Psychology of Peoples - Its...

Gustave Le Bon

After receiving a doctorate in medicine, Le Bon travelled in Europe, North Africa, and Asia and wrote several books on anthropology and archaeology. His interests later shifted to natural science and social psychology. Gustave Le Bon is best known for his seminal work „Crowd Psychology“ where he describes the psychological effects in various group settings. In „Psychology of Peoples“ written in 1894 he utilizes his anthropological knowledge and cross-references it with social psychology. He developed a view that history is the product of racial or national character, with emotion, not intelligence, being the dominant force in social evolution. He attributed true progress to the work of an intellectual elite. As a product of its time and conditions, the content of this book is partly highly controversial and should be seen as an intellectual challenge. Some arguments should be outright rejected, cause they haven’t stood the test of time. To his credit, already back in 1894 Le Bon foresaw the dangers of the application of socialism, well before the Russian Revolution and Mao’s takeover of China.

Mostra libro